The Ambivalent Union
Research finds attitudes to the Union typified by ambivalence to the future of the state and a sense of grievance about the other parts.
Recent research suggests that support for the continued Union of England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland is, at best, muted.
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The Union Survey, the only 360° survey of constitutional attitudes in each of the UK’s four component parts, found sizable groups of people in each either supported independence (or reunification) for their own or another part of the Union or were largely ambivalent about the continuation of the state in its current form.
While many respondents in all nations agreed in principle that there should be policy uniformity across the state and that resources should similarly be shared, support falls markedly when it comes to the specifics of how such solidarity might work.
There are high levels of grievance in all four corners of the state, with many respondents believing their own nation is unfairly treated in relation to the others. There is also a striking ignorance in each nation about the others, with voters in England unable or unwilling to offer views on the other three nations, and voters in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland similarly ill-informed on those devolved nations that are not their own.
Even among those who prioritise their Britishness are divided on what that means, with British-identifiers in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland sharing many attitudes with English-identifiers in England. Finally, there is very limited support for what we have termed the ‘Muscular Unionism’ seen in the Johnson era, mainly limited to Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) supporters in Northern Ireland and Conservative supporters in Scotland and Wales, with English Conservatives not sharing the same view.
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Election Briefing 2024
Assuming the polls are correct and Labour is on course for a clear victory in the general election, it looks set to inherit a fractured and fragmented state. As our earlier work has shown, the relationships between the component parts of the UK continue to be dominated by either apathy or a sense of grievance.
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Of particular relevance to the next government:
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A majority of the inhabitants in each of the other three parts of the Union are now at least indifferent as to whether the fourth, Northern Ireland, remains part of the state.
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Unionists and those emphasising their Britishness in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland have little in common with those doing so in England.
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Majorities of young people in Scotland and Northern Ireland favour independence / reunification.
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Only around a quarter of voters in England are happy with the way England is governed through the UK institutions.
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Despite these pressures, there has been remarkably little discussion during the campaign of either the governance of the state or, the other significant constitutional question of recent years, the UK's relationship with the EU.
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However, as is seen in the rise of Reform, a politically assertive Englishness continues to be an important feature shaping UK politics as are the centrifugal forces informing the political choices of, particularly, younger Scottish and Northern Irish voters.
Public attitudes on the state of the state